Hello. Today we will talk about Russian foreign policy. It's realist, logic, and philosophy. And the purpose of this lecture will be, to try to prove you, why Russia is a realist power, and I will do this in the following way, I will start by describing predominant Western assumptions about Russian foreign policy, and claim that they are wrong. In order to prove why they are wrong, I will go and illustrate the logic and philosophy of Russian foreign policy, and I'll prove that they are continuity with the evolution of Russia West relations, including the most known cases of Ukraine and Syria. Then, I will pass over to describing the Russian perception of external environment, especially power distribution in the world, and in this description, I will identify both positive and negative factors, both the opportunities that Russia sees for itself, in the international system, and the risks that Russia faces. And finally, I will conclude with describing the major Russian foreign policy priorities, and the future of Russia's relations with the United States, NATO and the European Union, the major Western actors. So, what are the usual Western assumptions on Russian foreign policy? First and foremost, Russia's claimed to be unpredictable. Unpredictability is the basis of the Western paradigm of analyzing Russia. Indeed, the narrative is who could anticipate that Russia will go and take Crimea? Who could think about Russia's ability to use force against Ukraine? Or Russia's readiness to use force in Ukraine support the rebels in Donbass? Or who could predict Russia's desire to go and join the war in Syria after all, throughout the recent years, Russia has been consistently claiming, that it is ready to use force in the post Soviet space old. Secondly, Russian foreign policy is claimed to be revisionist. In its foreign policy, Russia revises, violates the established rules of the game, and third, that in doing so, Russia challenges the international order. The major American assumption and paradigm on Russia, is that Russia challenges the international order, that has been established since 1945, and strengthened after 1991. Russian foreign policy is also claimed in the West to be locked in touch with the reality. That Russia ignores many things like globalization, economic interdependence, and that Russia pursues an outdated 19th century type of foreign policy, based on power logic only, and ignoring other realities of the international environment. And finally, Russian foreign policy is claimed to be driven by domestic politics, and depending on who is the president, and the narrative for it is that, in the 1990s, under Boris Yeltsin, Russia was pursuing a pro Western foreign policy, then under Vladimir Putin, Russia was turned by him into the other direction. Then Andaman Vela, for gain Russia attempted, to turn towards the west, and when Putin returns to the Russian presidency, he again drove Russia back into the 19th century type of foreign policy. And as a result, Russian foreign policy is claimed to be unsuccessful, self isolating, and accelerating Russia's overall decline. But these assumptions in my full conviction are wrong. Why are they wrong? Because they are based on a fundamentally false paradigm. On a paradigm, which simply is unable to see the logic of Russian foreign policy, which is fundamentally different from the Russian paradigm. In order to understand the Russian foreign policy, you have to look upon this through the Russian eyes. You have to use the right paradigm, the right system of coordinates, and indeed the systems of coordinates between Russia and the West have been different, after the end of the Cold War, Russian and Western views on international order, and on the places and roles that Russia and the West play, in this international order, are fundamentally different. The Western assumptions about international order, and Western and Russian roles, in the international order, are based on the notion of the US victory in the Cold War. That US leadership should be the main pillar of the post-Cold War order, and Universal US led liberal international order, which Russia should eventually join. But Russia sees itself, and the post-Cold War order, and its place in this post-Cold War order, fundamentally differently. And coward secret Russia sees all this. We will talk in the remaining parts of this lecture.
